Jia Kang: New Round Of Economic Stimulus Plan Has Been Developed

Whether to start to look at in the second quarter indicators "face"



Jia Kang, director of the Institute of Fiscal Science, March 22, said in an interview, our government has been well prepared to deal with greater economic difficulties, the relevant departments have made a new round of economic stimulus plans The Government will look at second quarter economic indicators of the "face" to decide whether to launch a new round of economic stimulus.



Jia Kang analysis, in 2008 China's economy will show a "low to high before," trends. As the end of last year investment plan proposed by 4 trillion is difficult to rapidly effective, and the first quarter of last year, the economy is in a rising channel, so the first quarter of this year were certainly difficult to see, but in the second quarter of the indicators will be more representative, whether from China's economic "former low" climb "the high", the key is in the second quarter.



Data show that 1-2 months of this year, a substantial decline in our revenue year over year, reaching 11.4%, which was formed on the revenue and greater support of the southeast coastal cities have experienced negative revenue growth, Beijing, Chongqing and other cities revenue decline year over year and even reached double digits.



Jia Kang that if the 4 trillion of investment in the first quarter after pulling effect is still not clearly reflected in the second quarter, lower than expected economic indicators, the Government is likely to launch a new round of economic stimulus plan, expansion of the policy will be significantly increased as. In his view, the answer does not need to wait 7-8 months before they see the outcome of this year, until June will probably be able to calculate the economic indicators in the second quarter.



Jia Kang suggested that in this round of implementation of the proactive fiscal policy, the policy should be considered financial instruments such as interest subsidies, BOT, credit guarantees, preferential policy loans, etc., to support three rural, small and medium enterprises and other economic growth, can In conditions where the pilot local bonds (municipal bonds). He said that in the investment process, the key is to prevent the waste of money and duplication. As to the specific investment funds, in addition to direct financial funding support, the most important thing is to stimulate social capital, private capital participation in investment to achieve the multiplier effect of investment, the only way to really stimulate the economy.



Once the new round of economic stimulus plans, macro-control than the Asian financial crisis of 1998 should be more efforts. At present, the government decision-making attention concentrated on the short-term investments boost the economy, only the basic business survived until the crisis are more likely to consider the industry's long-term reform.



In Jia Kang appears that China is fully capable of starting a new round of economic stimulus. The use of funds in the future, he suggested that could be put into a large number of dilapidated financial reservoirs and irrigation facilities, infrastructure, input to the "Big aircraft", transgenic biotechnology, a major gas field development and other special construction.

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