Economic Recovery Worries Drag on International Oil Price

With the prospects for global economic recovery, the "cloudy to overcast," International oil prices have slowed momentum. 24 August crude oil prices continued to decline in the first 5 days, as of press time ago, the New York Stock Exchange electronic trading session on October crude oil futures prices fell 0.9% to 72.42 U.S. dollars a barrel. This year, the futures prices have slipped 8.6%. 24, interviewed in an industry that, despite the global economic recovery, but the market for the future economic strength of the recovery and sustainability is still skeptical, neither too far from panic pessimistic confidence. Against this background, this year run smoothly in international oil prices, volatility has significantly narrowed the range, sideways movement and prominent features.

This year, international oil price has more than fluctuations. However, compared with ups and downs of the 2008 and 2009, volatility has eased considerably. Data show that in early 2010, international oil prices at 81.51 U.S. dollars a barrel. The average price of the first quarter of 78.09 U.S. dollars, up 2.7%. But in the second quarter, oil prices fell significantly, down 9.7%, the average price of 78.88 U.S. dollars. In June, the international oil price showed a weaker trend in small steps. "So far this year, international oil prices that range from 70 to 85 U.S. dollars." 24, told reporters the industry source said.

In fact, because of the global economic recovery, concerns about the emergence of new, 23 crude oil prices fell nearly 7-week lows, while gasoline futures price is a record low of nearly 9 months. Data show that in August, crude oil prices have decreased more than nine U.S. dollars. Despite the sharp rise in early to have around 82 U.S. dollars a barrel, but then re into decline, currently hovering around 72 dollars a barrel. A dealer said that since August has been the stock market fell by 1% each, oil prices fell on the subsequent 2.5 to 3 percent., "We expect that trend to continue for some time in the future." The source said recent U.S. real estate is expected this week, and inventories baked before a barrel of crude oil prices will drop to 71 to 72 US dollars.

As the global economy "wind vane" of the United States and the euro zone, the core of economic data has been of concern to economists. Despite the pessimism of 23 U.S. economic data has not been issued, but the market is generally agreed that the next few days this week, have published by the U.S. real estate and economic growth in the second quarter, revised data will hardly be optimistic about such important. Economists expect the upcoming five-week second-quarter economic growth rate, from the Government's original estimate of 2.4% significantly reduced to 1.3%, indicating that the pace of economic recovery has been a marked slowdown. Information coming from the euro zone is also worrisome. Data show that, although in August the German and French manufacturing and service sector purchasing managers index rose over the same period of the two indices are both the euro area declined, which means that the implementation of strict fiscal policy within the euro zone to reduce the deficit countries, still facing a serious downturn severe test. At the same time, Moody's Investors Service warned that if the euro-zone member countries because of financial constraints lead to economic decline, the rating agencies will cut the ratings of these countries.

"The prospects for global economic recovery, the increase in cases of uncertainty, the weak trend in international oil prices will escape." Analyst Mike Sand Capital Advisors, said bank earnings lower than expected, depressed real estate market, the domestic unemployment rate is high, these indicates that the United States are still concerns that the economic situation means that demand for crude oil remains under pressure. In addition, as the U.S. summer driving season, the end of the tour, the general demand for crude oil will drop significantly in the third quarter. The current U.S. economic downturn has left many investors worried about weakening oil demand this year, the United States fall time will be longer than usual. Although including India, including emerging economies still maintain a rapid growth rate, but most economists believe that this is not enough pairs of global oil demand throughout the decisive influence.

Different prospects for oil demand and weak, the current U.S. crude oil inventories are at their highest level in 27 years. Analysts expect the three to be announced this week, U.S. crude oil inventory report showed crude oil and gasoline inventories fell moderately, but remain high. Among them, crude oil inventories will decline was only 40 million barrels, gasoline inventories also fell 40 million barrels, to include heating oil and distillate stocks, including diesel fuel will increase by 80 million barrels. According to IEA data, other developed countries, the same crude oil inventories remain at high levels, OECD crude oil inventories have been able to meet demand for 61 days, compared with 2007 and 2008, inventory levels rose by 10%.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed earlier in the August crude oil futures prices hit 80 U.S. dollars a barrel, when engaged in speculative hedge funds and other funds managers had begun to leave the crude oil market. "Overall, the views of the current market price is not optimistic." Tony Global Markets traders expected in the short term it may be difficult to see a strong rebound in oil prices.

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