Economists expected in April China's economic growth might have peaked

Today, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the main macro-economic data in April, although the major institutions are expected to have a very nice macro-economic data, but some foreign experts trotted out the "China collapse theory", while many domestic economists also publicly said that with the gradual disappearance of the effect of stimulating spending and take measures to curb real estate speculation and other overheated, about to announce a large number of monthly economic data may show that China's growth momentum will have begun to peak.

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� � � � Slowing economic growth in the chain

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� � � � In the April forecast of economic data, many economists predict the data published over the previous year will be significantly increased, but this is mainly based on last year's low base, is also likely to cover up the fact that the slow growth of the chain.

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� � � � UBS economist Wang Tao in Beijing (blog) said, April's industrial production growth rate may be only 18%. She said that the annual increase of data in early 2009 in China to benefit from weak economic performance, it may even hide the fact that the chain growth is clearly slowing.

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� � � � Wang Tao said that the award has not yet shown the Chinese economy is very obvious weakness, but economic growth has already peaked. She pointed out that in recent months, China is growing at all costs, protect economic growth adjusted to prevent out of control, with the goal of economic growth in much damage to the case, to prevent inflation and to address asset bubbles, especially in real estate asset bubble.

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� � � � Even if the data in April was higher than expected, growth is still likely to decline. Goldman Sachs is expected in April China's industrial added value increased 19.1%, but the seasonally adjusted increase may only 14.3%, significantly lower than March's 20.3%.

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� � � � In addition to foreign institutions, China Development Research Foundation, Tang Min, Deputy Secretary-General (blog) is also a sign that the economy peaked. He told Morning Post interview yesterday, said the growth rate from the point of view, economic growth in the first quarter of this year, the base was 11.9%, compared to the first quarter of last year to 6.1% in terms of economic growth, rising higher, but he would not so high.

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� � � � In addition, Tang said that from the real estate control policies will be looking at the impact of economic growth, the growth rate of 11.9% significantly too high; coupled with the impact of the debt of Greece, imagined the world economy is not as good as expected 5,6 exports for the momentum will be reduced. 19% of the industrial growth rate has been very fast and then faster is not health.

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� � � � April CPI up 2.8% or

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� � � � Composite CPI data has been released in April forecast of five financial institutions in view of CPI in April may be at 2.6% year on year increase to 3%, still in a moderate increase in channels, but much more likely than in February rose 2.7% During the year a record high.

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� � � � China to be reported over the previous year the growth rate of major economic indicators, not like many other countries, reports the chain way, many economists expect the data will significantly increase.

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� � � � Cao Yuan Zheng, chief economist at Bank of China International forecasts, the data would be consistent with market expectations, inflation may not be higher than 2.6%, GDP reached a high roof will not exceed 12%. From the full year, industrial growth rate up to 30%, foreign trade surplus is small, the money supply throughout the year will increase 17.5%.

� � � � Peak will be the face of macroeconomic data, the National Securities chief economist at the King King of Rock (blog) said that if the economic indicators in April finished lower, this will be the best news. If you pick up the manufacturing sector in April, while the real estate, metal-based industry slowdown, the economy would be a good sign. He believes that the best economic growth rate of 10%, maintaining high growth and low inflation, sound policy making. April should be more concerned about CPI, which will affect whether the rate hike and I hope the CPI at 2.8% based on the flat can be maintained.

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� � � � In the inflation problem may be under attack on the Chinese economy, China will for the "second bottom," UBS chief Asia economist in Hong Kong Kai Wu said, the main indicators confirm that economic growth will slow in the second half, but only "medium-term correction of economic growth" rather than "eventually lead to economic deterioration."

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